May 30, 2024

ZiPS Projections Show Atlanta Braves Will be Just Fine in 2024

Despite the pessimism surrounding the inability to sign any significant free agents, ZiPS projections indicate that the Atlanta Braves as they currently stand are adequate.

Despite the pessimism surrounding the inability to sign any significant free agents, ZiPS projections indicate that the Atlanta Braves as they currently stand are adequate.

It’s simple to become engrossed in the offseason activities, and it can be quite infuriating to watch other teams sign big names while your team does nothing.

But as Braves supporters, we must keep in mind that every baseball team is currently making an effort to catch up with them.

The Braves had the most complete baseball roster heading into the offseason.

The back of the rotation is this team’s only true weakness, especially in light of the moves already made for the bullpen.

This past week saw the release of Fangraphs’ annual ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski, which demonstrate why the Braves are already regarded as one of the best teams in 2024.

Marcell Ozuna’s 2023 rebound season is not anticipated by the projections, which call for him to hit 15 fewer home runs and a 20-point drop in batting average.

Additionally, they observe that Orlando Arcia has somewhat regressed following his unexpected All-Star campaign in 2023. Furthermore, the forecasts don’t support a breakthrough for recently acquired Jarred Kelenic. The only position that is predicted to be worth less than one win is left field.

The only position groups for the Braves that finished the season with fewer than one win were shortstop and left field. Of the two positions, center field had the lowest rating (3.8), partly because centerfielder Michael Harris II struggled early in the season and missed time.

This looks like it will be an elite offense again in 2024, regardless of what they get at shortstop and left field.

The starting rotation has received a lot of attention this offseason, but according to ZiPS, the rotation should be fine for 2024 at least with two four-win players at the top in Spencer Strider and Max Fried, and two two-win players in Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder.

 

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