May 28, 2024

Three wagers for Michigan vs. Ohio State that do not use the hazy moneyline: “Betting the Buckeyes” by Tyler Shoemaker.

Columbus, Ohio – Obviously, there are a lot of reasons why this Ohio State vs. Michigan game is difficult, including the Connor Stalions controversy, Jim Harbaugh’s lack of absence from the team, and JJ McCarthy’s injury.

I’m not sure why, but I’m finding it extremely difficult to predict this game. Using season-long metrics and my usual formula, I normally project Michigan minus-6.5, but this week I’ve been looking closely at the numbers.

According to the eye test, Michigan has changed in appearance. They’ve played better teams lately, too, which is why I wanted to examine the opponent-adjusted metrics from the previous month. I will now present you with some statistics. Although I don’t usually do this, this week I feel like it’s important to mention.

I would project Ohio State minus three if I were to just give the previous month a little more weight. That is the extent to which their performance in the last month has differed from the first two months of the season.

Michigan is ranked 36th in terms of opponent-adjusted net EPA and Ohio State is ranked third.
Michigan is ranked 18th and Ohio State is first in net points per play.
There is a significant difference between these teams’ recent performances as Ohio State is ranked first in net yards per point and Michigan is ranked eighteenth.

Michigan is sort of heading in the wrong direction, while Ohio State is kind of booming and trending in the right direction. Because of this, even though my season-long number is Michigan -6.5, I’ve discovered over the past few years as a bettor that, when it comes to rivalry games, you have to kind of go a little bit deeper this week than you usually would when handicapping a game. Looking closer, it shouts Ohio State to me.

Regarding TreVeyon Henderson, who had an incredible game last week, we most definitely missed the boat. This week, you can wager on him to rush for 83.5 yards at -115 odds, or you can wager on his alternate to rush for over 100 yards at +188, meaning there’s a nearly 2/1 chance he’ll go for at least 100 yards.

I’m going to go ahead and do that now: Over 100 rushing yards at +188 for TreVeyon Henderson.

Regarding some additional props, there’s a guy we haven’t yet discussed that I like. Our guy, Cade Stover, is here. He’s back, but we forgot about him.

When Cade Stover scores at +210, I like him.

They have frequently utilised him as a weapon in the red zone. Last year, he was on the verge of scoring a touchdown when Mike Sainristil grabbed it from him in the end zone. This year, I believe Stover scores a touchdown.

In addition, I intended to wager on the Ohio State Team Total over 20.5. However, as I focused more on that specific angle, I found that the Ohio State team total over could be bet at either -105 or -110, or you could choose to wager on Ohio State over 2 1/2 touchdowns at +120.

In other words, you’re essentially betting on the same thing. But on this wager, you’re going to get +120. Therefore, I’m going to take Ohio State over 2 1/2 touchdowns at +120 to win the game.

 

 

 

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